WHEN I FIRST started in broadcasting, I was called a "color commentator." My job was to break down players and teams and tell you why they were good, and to break down game matchups and tell you what to watch for and which factors will determine the outcome. Back then, we'd create a preseason top 20, attempting to tell you which teams and players will be best. Once in a while, we would be asked for a prediction, but it wasn't the dominant theme.At some point, I became a "basketball analyst," which sounds profoundly snobbish. Suddenly, we were asked to pick winners of each game, which was counterintuitive to my sensibilities. After all, if I knew who was going to win, why wouldn't I just go to Las Vegas and sit by the pool with a drink in my hand and rake in the winnings? Of course we don't know who was going to win. Sure, we can point to matchups and factors upon which the game will be decided, but nobody knows.
That said, fans get worked up over analysts' picks -- which is why our bosses insist we make them. I do one bracket every year, and after I make my picks on Selection Sunday -- in an article in which I pick every men's NCAA tournament game for your pleasure and my pain -- I don't think about them again. I am more interested in the play on the floor. But nobody lets us forget those picks, despite the meaninglessness of them all.
This year, I had a dilemma. When I looked at the paths of each No. 1 seed, I really liked the one each had. But what would be the chances that all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four? Since seeding began in 1979, all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four only once, in 2008 -- in San Antonio. That year, I found myself in the same predicament: I looked at the path of each No. 1 seed and liked each independently. When filling out the bracket, I had all four advancing to San Antonio. And in the end, all four did make it. This year, the feat was accomplished for only the second time. My overall record of games picked in my article is 45-15, including the correct Final Four in San Antonio. And notwithstanding my picks or yours, this Final Four is historic, but it is not unprecedented.
It might not be as splashy; I got a tremendous amount of guff for my picks in 2008 and again this year. But there's something to remember: While the NCAA tournament is a spectacle, it also is the national championship. And we're lucky enough to have the four best teams from the season fighting it out near the Alamo for the trophy and to cut the nets down.
This Final Four is absolutely incredible. These four squads are the top four teams in the KenPom efficiency ratings (the most digestible analytics for fans) and have a combined record of 135-16. All four teams are rated in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is amazing and unusual. Better still, these four teams are each among the top 10 most efficient in the history of KenPom ratings, available since 1997. Duke is No. 2 all time, Houston No. 6, Florida No. 8 and Auburn No. 10. That is all time.
Every season and every NCAA tournament is different, which is one of the beautiful things about the event. Two years ago, San Diego State and Florida Atlantic reached the Final Four, and the overarching narrative was that NIL and the transfer portal had flattened the Earth, that talent would be more spread out and the reign of the major conferences could be over. This year, upsets were not as prevalent, and all 16 teams in the Sweet 16 were from four major conferences (seven from the SEC, four from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and one from the ACC). Now, it was said, the transfer portal and NIL have killed mid-majors, who are just organ donors for the major conferences.
Of course, neither is true. One data point does not make a trend, and this is just one year. Two years ago, this year's Sweet 16 would have represented seven conferences, with Houston in the American, BYU in the West Coast Conference and Arizona in the Pac-12. Would that make everyone feel better?
As the games approach, it's time to forget the discourse -- and, yes, the picks -- and focus on the basketball that's in store. These four teams -- all-time greats -- had to earn their way here and did. The competition among them will be delicious, and I cannot wait to see it.